assumption-audit

Assumption Audit

Every plan sits on a stack of assumptions, and the dangerous ones are invisible — you don't question what you don't notice you believe. This drags them into the light, ranks them by how much weight they carry, and flips the load-bearing ones to see which single wrong assumption would collapse the whole thing. Then it tells you the cheapest way to check that one before you bet on it.

What This Skill Produces

• The assumption list — the unstated beliefs your plan/conclusion depends on, including the ones you didn't realize you were making
• Load-bearing ranking — which assumptions, if wrong, barely matter vs. which would collapse everything
• The flip test — for the critical ones, what actually happens if they're false
• The cheap check — the fastest, lowest-cost way to test the riskiest assumption before committing

Required Inputs

Ask for these if not provided:

• The plan, belief, or conclusion — what you want audited
• Your reasoning — how you got there (reveals the assumptions)
• What's at stake — so we know how hard to test
• What you're treating as certain — the beliefs you're most confident in (often the riskiest)

Framework: Surface, Rank, Flip, Test

1. Extract the assumptions. Read the reasoning and name every belief it depends on — especially the quiet ones stated as fact.
2. Include the invisible ones. Push for the assumptions so baked-in they're never questioned ("people will want this," "this will keep working," "I'll have the time").
3. Rank by load. Which assumptions, if false, barely change the conclusion? Which would collapse it? Focus on the load-bearing ones.
4. Flip the critical ones. For each high-load assumption, follow through what happens if it's actually wrong.
5. Find the cheap check. For the riskiest, name the fastest, lowest-cost way to test it before betting on it.

Output Format

Auditing: [the plan/belief]

Assumptions it rests on

| Assumption | Load-bearing? | If it's wrong… |

|---|---|---|

| [belief] | 🔴 collapses / 🟡 shifts / 🟢 minor | [consequence] |

The riskiest one: [the assumption most likely wrong AND most load-bearing].

Cheapest way to check it: [a fast, low-cost test].

Quality Checks

• [ ] Assumptions are actually surfaced, including invisible ones
• [ ] Each is ranked by how load-bearing it is
• [ ] The critical assumptions are flipped to show consequences
• [ ] The riskiest (wrong × load-bearing) is identified
• [ ] A cheap, concrete check is proposed for it

Anti-Patterns

• Only listing obvious assumptions and missing the buried ones.
• Treating all assumptions as equally important.
• Naming risks without flipping to see what breaking them does.
• No cheap test — leaving the person to just bet on it.

Example Trigger Phrases

• "What am I assuming in this plan?"
• "Check my assumptions about this business idea."
• "Stress-test my thinking here — what if I'm wrong?"
• "I'm sure this will work — what am I not questioning?"
• "What hidden assumption could sink this?"