popdevr-data-analysis

Data Analysis (popdevr-data-analysis)

PDR reviewers are expert demographers and development scholars, and the journal expects analyses that

are reproducible and interpretable to a broad readership. Analyze as if a methodologist will re-derive

your rates and an economist will ask what each number means for development — because both may. This

skill covers execution and reporting norms; method choice lives in popdevr-research-design.

When to trigger

• Constructing rates and life tables; building the results section
• Running a decomposition, event-history, APC, or projection analysis
• A reviewer asked for robustness, sensitivity, or alternative specifications
• Making the analysis reproducible and its development meaning explicit before deposit

Analysis norms PDR expects

1. Get the denominators right. Exposure (person-years), the correct base population, and

age/period alignment are where demographic analyses live or die. Document how rates were built.

1. Report uncertainty honestly. Confidence/credible intervals for rates, life-expectancy

contributions, projection scenarios, and derived quantities — not just point estimates or stars.

Bootstrap or delta-method intervals for decomposition components and life-table functions.

1. Decomposition with clear components. State precisely what each component (rate vs. composition,

age contribution, factor) represents and which maps to a development channel; ensure components sum

to the total being explained.

1. APC discipline. Be explicit about the identification problem; report under the stated constraint

and show sensitivity to plausible alternatives — never imply a unique decomposition.

1. Survival/event-history rigor. Check proportional hazards; handle censoring, truncation, and

competing risks correctly; report on the right time scale (age, duration, period).

1. Right inference for the data. Survey/design weights and complex-design variance where applicable;

cluster at the appropriate level; small-sample corrections when groups (e.g., countries) are few.

1. Make the development meaning explicit. For each headline quantity, say what it implies for the

social, economic, or environmental outcome — the PDR bar is not a clean estimate alone.

Demographic and comparative computation specifics

• Document data version/vintage (e.g., HMD/HFD/WPP release, DHS round), harmonization steps, and any

smoothing/graduation applied to rates.

• For projections: report the scenarios, base population, transition-rate assumptions, and sensitivity;

tie scenarios to development or policy futures where that is the contribution.

• For cross-country work: be explicit about comparability (definitions, coverage, data quality) before

reading a cross-national contrast as a development effect.

Reproducibility while you work (not at the end)

• One master script regenerates every table, figure, life table, decomposition, and projection from

the (raw or constructed) data.

• Set and report seeds for bootstrap and simulation.
• Pin software/package versions (renv.lock, requirements.txt, recorded ssc/net installs).
• Keep table/figure numbers in the manuscript matched to script outputs (see

popdevr-transparency-and-data).

Execution bridge (StatsPAI / Stata MCP)

Run the battery, don't just enumerate it. Full map:

[execution-with-mcp](../../../shared-resources/empirical-methods/execution-with-mcp.md). PDR is population studies blending quantitative and policy work; apply the chain to its empirical-causal papers.

• Many outcomes / specifications: romano_wolf (step-down FWER) or

benjamini_hochberg — report the adjusted threshold.

• OVB sensitivity: oster_delta / sensemakr.
• Inference: wild_cluster_bootstrap (few clusters), twoway_cluster / conley;

multilevel data → cluster at the right level.

• Re-fit off one handle: audit_result(result_id) lists the missing checks and the

exact suggest_function for each.

• Exhibits: etable / did_summary_to_latex from the handle — no retyped numbers.

Keep the decisive checks in the body and the exhaustive battery in the supplement. See

the executed chain in the [JF execution walkthrough](../../../Journal-of-Finance-Skills/resources/worked-examples/02-execution-walkthrough.md).

Anti-patterns

• Mismatched numerator/denominator or wrong exposure (the classic demographic error)
• Point estimates of life expectancy, decomposition components, or projections with no uncertainty
• An APC model presented as the uniquely correct partition
• Reading a cross-country correlation as a development effect without addressing comparability
• A results section whose rates and decompositions the code cannot reproduce

Evidence pass for PDR

Run this as a concrete capability pass. First lock the population process, the development/policy

linkage, the data and time scale, the selection/measurement issue, and the uncertainty; then test

whether the manuscript addresses PDR's broad audience who inspect both the population evidence and its

development meaning.

• Primary move: Audit unit, comparison, uncertainty, missingness, sensitivity, comparability, and

reproducibility before making any prose or submission recommendation.

• Decision ledger: return claim / evidence / blocker / next edit rows so the next pass can patch

the manuscript directly.

• Sibling comparison: compare against Demography and Population Studies (methods-forward),

Population Research and Policy Review (applied policy), and Studies in Family Planning (programs);

if a neighbor has the stronger audience claim, recommend re-routing before polishing.

• Verification floor: before submission-ready advice, re-open resources/official-source-map.md for

volatile rules and name the one unresolved fact that could change the recommendation.

Output format

【Main quantity】rate / e0 / decomposition / hazard / projection + magnitude + interval
【Development meaning】what it implies for the social/economic/environmental outcome
【Exposure / denominator check】correctly constructed? [Y/N]
【Decomposition】components defined + sum to total? [Y/N/NA]
【APC / comparability】constraint stated / cross-country comparability addressed? [Y/N/NA]
【Inference】weights/clustering/competing risks handled? [Y/N]
【Reproducible】master script + seeds + pinned versions? [Y/N]
【Next】popdevr-tables-figures

Supplementary resources

• [../../resources/external_tools.md](../../resources/external_tools.md) — life-table, decomposition, survival, APC, and projection packages
• [../../resources/official-source-map.md](../../resources/official-source-map.md) — data-availability and reproducibility expectations