marginaleffects

marginaleffects

Primary source of information: https://marginaleffects.com

Free book, case studies, and vignettes are available there.

Package manual for R and Python, plus a guide to the companion book.

Book: Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models in R and Python

• Author: Vincent Arel-Bundock (2026)
• Publisher: CRC Press
• Free online: https://marginaleffects.com (primary source with many case studies and vignettes)
• Print: https://routledge.com/9781032908724

Core framework: Five questions for every analysis

Every interpretation task can be decomposed into five disciplined questions:

1. Quantity: What estimand? (predictions, comparisons, slopes, or tests)
2. Predictors (Grid): Where to evaluate? (observed values, counterfactual scenarios, balanced grids)
3. Aggregation: Over whom? (unit-level, group means with by=, weighted averages)
4. Uncertainty: Which inference method? (delta method, robust SE, bootstrap, Bayesian)
5. Test: What hypothesis? (null tests, equivalence, pairwise contrasts)

Quick start

Chapter summaries: Read chapters/<chapter>.qmd

Function reference: Read man/r/<function>.md or man/python/<function>.md

When to use this skill

• User asks about predictions, comparisons, slopes, or marginal effects
• User needs help choosing estimands (ATE, ATT, CATE, risk difference, odds ratio)
• User asks about marginaleffects function syntax or arguments
• User wants to interpret model results or test hypotheses
• User mentions counterfactual analysis, G-computation, or causal inference
• User references Model to Meaning chapters

Instructions

1. Classify the request:

• Conceptual: Which estimand? How to interpret? → Use chapters/
• Implementation: Function syntax, arguments, code → Use man/r/ or man/python/
• Mixed: Start with conceptual framing, then provide code

1. Read the relevant source files:

• Book chapters: chapters/framework.qmd, chapters/predictions.qmd, chapters/comparisons.qmd, chapters/slopes.qmd, chapters/hypothesis.qmd, etc.
• R reference: man/r/predictions.md, man/r/comparisons.md, man/r/slopes.md, man/r/hypotheses.md, man/r/datagrid.md
• Python reference: man/python/predictions.md, man/python/comparisons.md, man/python/slopes.md, man/python/hypotheses.md

1. Apply the five-question framework to organize your response:

• Help user define the estimand (Quantity)
• Clarify where to evaluate it (Grid)
• Determine aggregation level (Aggregation)
• Recommend uncertainty quantification (Uncertainty)
• Specify hypothesis if testing (Test)

1. Provide concrete code examples using the correct function for their language (R or Python)

Available resources

Book chapters (chapters/)

| File | Topic | Chapter focus |

|------|-------|---------------|

| framework.qmd | Five-question framework (start here) | Defines the five questions and core quantities (predictions, comparisons, slopes) for turning models into intuitive estimands. |

| predictions.qmd | Predicted values and expected outcomes | Defines predictions, grids, aggregation, and tests with predictions()/avg_predictions(). |

| comparisons.qmd | Counterfactual comparisons, ATE, ATT, risk ratios | Defines counterfactual comparisons, effect functions, grids, and aggregation with comparisons()/avg_comparisons(). |

| slopes.qmd | Marginal effects, partial derivatives | Defines slopes as partial derivatives, conditional on predictors; uses slopes()/avg_slopes(). |

| hypothesis.qmd | Hypothesis testing and equivalence | Null vs equivalence tests for any quantity using hypothesis and equivalence arguments. |

| interactions.qmd | Interaction effects and effect modification | Interprets heterogeneity and nonlinearity with interactions and polynomials using predictions, comparisons, and slopes. |

| categorical.qmd | Categorical predictors and contrasts | Applies the framework to categorical/ordinal outcomes with predictions and comparisons by outcome level. |

| experiments.qmd | Experimental designs | ATE in experiments and factorial designs via avg_comparisons() and robust SEs. |

| gcomputation.qmd | G-computation and causal inference | G-computation steps for ATE/ATT/ATU/CATE with counterfactual prediction grids. |

| uncertainty.qmd | Inference methods (delta, bootstrap, Bayesian) | Delta method, bootstrap, simulation, conformal prediction, and robust/clustered standard errors via inferences()/vcov. |

| mrp.qmd | Multilevel regression and poststratification | Multilevel models and poststratification with predictions and comparisons in mixed effects. |

| ml.qmd | Machine learning models | Model auditing with predictions, comparisons, and slopes for ML frameworks. |

| challenge.qmd | The interpretation challenge | Defines analysis goals, estimands, and why coefficients need transformation. |

R function reference (man/r/)

Core functions (includes avg_* variants): predictions.md, comparisons.md, slopes.md, hypotheses.md

Grids: datagrid.md

Plots: plot_predictions.md, plot_comparisons.md, plot_slopes.md

Utilities: posterior_draws.md, inferences.md, get_dataset.md

Python function reference (man/python/)

Core: predictions.md, avg_predictions.md, comparisons.md, avg_comparisons.md, slopes.md, avg_slopes.md, hypotheses.md

Grids: datagrid.md

Plots: plot_predictions.md, plot_comparisons.md, plot_slopes.md

Model fitting: fit_statsmodels.md, fit_sklearn.md, fit_linearmodels.md

Examples

Logit model example

R:

library(marginaleffects)

# Fit logistic regression
mod <- glm(am ~ hp + wt, data = mtcars, family = binomial)

# Average marginal effects (slopes on probability scale)
avg_slopes(mod)

# Predicted probabilities at specific values
predictions(mod, newdata = datagrid(hp = c(100, 150, 200), wt = 3))

# Average treatment effect: compare hp = 150 vs hp = 100
avg_comparisons(mod, variables = list(hp = c(100, 150)))

# Risk ratio for a 50-unit increase in hp
avg_comparisons(mod, variables = list(hp = 50), comparison = "ratio")

Python:

import marginaleffects as me
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf

# Fit logistic regression
mod = smf.logit("am ~ hp + wt", data=me.get_dataset("mtcars")).fit()

# Average marginal effects
me.avg_slopes(mod)

# Predicted probabilities at specific values
me.predictions(mod, newdata=me.datagrid(mod, hp=[100, 150, 200], wt=3))

# Average treatment effect: compare hp = 150 vs hp = 100
me.avg_comparisons(mod, variables={"hp": [100, 150]})

User asks about choosing an estimand:

→ Read chapters/framework.qmd and chapters/comparisons.qmd, explain the five-question framework, recommend the appropriate quantity (e.g., avg_comparisons() for ATE).

User asks how to compute marginal effects:

→ Read man/r/slopes.md or man/python/slopes.md, provide syntax with relevant arguments.

User wants to test treatment effect heterogeneity:

→ Read chapters/comparisons.qmd for CATE concepts, then man/r/hypotheses.md for testing syntax with by= groups.

User asks about counterfactual grids:

→ Read chapters/framework.qmd (Predictors section) and man/r/datagrid.md for datagrid() usage.

Best practices

• Ask about language preference: If the user hasn't specified R or Python, ask which they prefer before providing code examples
• Always frame responses using the five-question framework when appropriate
• Cite specific sections from summaries or manuals
• Mention get_dataset() when users need example data
• For mixed requests, start with conceptual framing then show implementation